Tuesday 27 October 2009

The next sound you hear .............from Rico

The next sound you hear may very well be the "popping" of commercial real estate (CRE).

CRE is a major potential problem, and the next 'stealth' bailout will be for the commercial real-estate industry. The US Treasury already has named it "Plan C."

From 2009 to 2010 the amount of MBS's doubles...and only increases going forward.

And, unlike residential 30-year fixed loans, commercial loans are financed in much shorter terms, 5,7, or sometimes 10 years.

We know what happened to the housing market. Single family starts collapsed, and virtually interest-free Treasury and Fed money hasn't yet been able to seriously stimulate demand in an already overbuilt market.

With no 'new' residences, families (populations) coming to create a sustainable market for already-built 'new' commercial developments these developments that were built to serve 'projected' populations sit empty with no new housing starts coming, and already finished residential developments either sitting empty or filled with squatters.

These new-but-empty shopping centers and office buildings may become this period's "ghost towns."




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