Saturday, 29 September 2012

Campaign Analysis........................from Shelly

It is complicated. One has to drill down to the metrics of the pollsters to understand weighting of results.

The weighting is done after the polling by adding value based upon a first, a backward look at the turnout for a previous election. The recent NY Times poll of Florida, for instance, the turnout was +3 for Democrats in the 2008 election, and the turnout for the 2004 election for the Republicans was +5. (for Demos, -5)

Then, the pollster tries to project what the turnout will be in the 2012 for Democrats vs. Republicans. What the NY Times did was give the Democrats a +9!!!!

The 2008 election was an anomaly. The turnout was huge for Obama, bigger than ever before. But remember what happened in 2010? Obama and the Democrats took, (in his own words) "A Shellacking".

Does anyone really think the Democratic turnout in Florida will be THREE times the 2008? No way. It will be somewhere between +3 and -5.

Same analysis applies to Ohio and other swing states. Karl Rove and Rasmussen have all three as tossups (Ohio, Florida and Virginia). As those three go, so will the election. If Rove says it isn't over, it isn't over.

So, watch the debates. Shorter answers required (not the president's forte; he likes to pontificate) and NO TELEPROMPTERS. The first will be domestic policy. Who knows the numbers better?

That's October 3 Jim Lehrer will moderate.

The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six time segments of approximately 15 minutes each on topics to be selected by the moderator and announced several weeks before the debate.

The moderator will open each segment with a question, after which each candidate will have two minutes to respond. The moderator will use the balance of the time in the segment for a discussion of the topic.

Then, October 11 is VP Debate covers domestic and foreign affairs. Think Biden or Ryan knows policy better? I'd bet the farm on Ryan.

Then, October 16, Town meeting covering foreign and domestic policy; and

Finally, October 22 - Foreign Policy - same format as October 3.

They will be streamed on the Internet I think.

I think Romney will be super prepared and then unleash the money he has been hoarding trying to time the peak at the election on November 6. He has twice the amount in hand that Obama does, as Obama has been burning at twice the rate of Romney.

We will see if Romney is the legendary planner and manager that he holds himself out to be. If he is, he will be President.

But one thing for sure; it ain't over yet, even if the mainstream media wants you to think so.

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