Wednesday, 21 November 2012

My estimate of KRG/GoI DJ Elliott

Neither side is ready. What we are seeing is longterm prepatory moves vice short-term conflict moves.
1.While neither side is currently ready, IA has more resources in the long run than KRG. The IA has effective parity ATT with the planned RGBs.
2.As the FP takes over internal security in various locations, the IA will be freed up for deployment - this is the delay. FP is not expanding fast enough. This will eventually allow the IA to concentrate.
3.The IA needs to shift forces in the north that they cannot trust vs KRG to southern locations, while shifting forces the GoI can trust against the KRG to replace them.
4.The IA needs to train on new equipment. This is especially true of the 12th Div in Kirkuk - May be politically dependable but, too green and only recently equipped with some armor. Only the IA 9th Div is really ready - the rest are still shaking-down on new equipment and only started training in conventional combined arms during the last year.
5.The IA also need more training time on the new equipment and needs more heavy weapons. Primarily Artillery - vs the KRG, Artillery is the biggest shortage.
6.While the same can be said for the RGBs, they are actually matching training timelines with the IA - retraining/reorganizing as many RGBs as the IA in the same timeframe. Their problem is they have a lower final end-strength and less access to heavy weapons.
7.Additional time to fully set up sustainment is needed for the IA. KRG has the advantage here - interior lines. Without effective air strength - the IA has no way of neutralizing the KRGs advantage of interior lines.
8.Maliki is talking joint patrols in the disputed zone. Smart move. Looks like a compromise but, has the effect of pinning [corseting] the RGBs to an equal force of IA. In any KRG/GoI conflict, this would reduce the KRG flexabillity - thus allowing the IA to move additional forces in and defeat in detail. Also, it would draw most of the RGBs into more favorable terrain for the IA. Again, needs time to set up.

This is IA/GoI political and battlefield prep for the future - 1-2 years minimum.

Any fight before the IA is ready, could be very iffy for the GoI.

If the fight starts this year - the KRG has a good chance of winning against the IA.

The KRG's problem is Iran and Turkey...

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Well, that was pretty thoroughly encrypted.