Saturday, 24 November 2012
Christmas is for kids!.................from Rico
Watching the herds trample each other (and even pull guns) in Black Friday shopping hysteria to get toys and other gifts gives me pause for thought. What is wrong with this picture?
- Grownups acting like out-of-control bad kids!
Understand, I LIKE Christmas and the holiday season. I really do. But Christmas is for kids.
- Young kids cannot shop for themselves. It's fun to 'give' them surprise gifts, it's fun for them to 'get' these presents.
Other than shopping for your kids presents, grownups priorities have to also include replacing their kids shoes, paying-down debt, saving for a rainy day, food on the table, etc.
- What kids are learning from this Black Friday mob behavior are 'values' ....and the values on display right now aren't exactly the ones we should want them to have in future or things will get uglier than this (and more often than just on Black Friday).
Festive gift-giving among the family is great, and I'm not at all in favor of stopping the 'fun' of the season...it's just just the ever-growing 'creep' of gifts beyond the family to teachers, colleagues, and ever more that cloys...
- To me it seems almost a zero-sum endeavor (and a painful one at that). You spend x$ to give person a. something, person a. spends x$ to give you something...maybe both borrowing money to do it. What is gained? (This is only one reason economics is called the grim science btw.)
I like the idea of putting the 'spirit' of the season back into the season instead.
- Being more appreciative, thoughtful and considerate all year is a gift in and of itself (if you actually do it).
- And maybe the REAL gift is releasing others from the 'obligation' of having to buy you a present?
Christmas is for kids.
- Grownups need to stop behaving like nasty, spoiled kids.
Vietnam Vets push for Kerry for Secretary of Defense...................from Rico
As I stare at the VC pith helmet hanging on my den wall, Kerry's pathetic "I still have the hat" (along with his 'I'm smarter than you' pronunciation of Genghis Khan) rings in my ear and a wave of disgust/nausea threatens but is overcome by loathing for this uber-condescending "progressive" hate-America assh*le.
Now THIS I can absolutely believe!
News...........
Meet Dai Mingmeng, China’s Jet Jock
A New Direction for Conservatives (pt 2) – The Agenda
First U.K. pilots begin training to fly F-35
What it's going to take to win the culture wars...
Clarissa Dickson-Wright - Fat Lady Says What A Nation Thinks
Service members honor veterans at Madingley American Cemetery
British Code-Breakers Stumped by Pigeon's WWII Message
Half-kilometre long Kim Jong-un propaganda message visible from space
Egypt Hesitates to Reopen Rafah Crossing
A worrisome report on the eroded combat skills of an Army Stryker regiment
The sound of silence: Sailor finds peace in world's quietest room
Al Nusrah Front claims suicide attack at hospital, joint operation with Chechen fighters
Electronic tracking: new constraint for Saudi women
Small Company Figures Out QR Codes, and Sells Beer
Jeb Bush in 2016? Not Too Early for Chatter
Bentley targets Airbus suppliers during Germany trip
Council defends taking foster children away from UKIP members
Violence in Egypt after Morsi assumes sweeping new powers
Catalonia prepares itself for a vote against Spain
Syria: Turkey missile plan is a 'provocation'
India Pursues Massive Nuclear Expansion
How Obama’s FEMA Criminally Botched the Hurricane Recovery Effort
Food Stamp Recipients Outnumber Populations of 24 States Combined
Obama’s pledge of US troops to Sinai next week won Israel’s nod for ceasefire
Comparing Chinese Naval Power to the Soviet Navy
Driving the First Nail into a Fundamentally Transformed America
A Second Thanksgiving Birdie? Obama Plays Golf
3 Reasons to Kill The Dept. of Homeland Security: It's Unnecessary, Inef...
DHS is the third biggest cabinet agency, but are we better off because of its existence?
Twinkiecide...............from Rico
These are merely symptoms:
- Last month it was "Newsweek"
- This month it is "Twinkies"
- Next? [There WILL be more to come]
This is the disease:
- Growing BIG government while smothering the private sector...all the while drowning in a sea of debt.
Call it "Twinkiecide"...death by progressivism/liberalism, brough to you by those that would rather be 'red' than deal with reality, even if it kills them...and everyone else.
- Recalling their old Cold War battle cry "better red than dead" today one must retort "being red will make you dead."
Israel Hastens The Day of Reckoning.................from Dan Friedman
[Israel fights another inconclusive war that, if she had the will, she would have won easily. So it only served to strengthen her savage Islamist enemies and set the stage for the next war. Apparently, the one chance to keep Israel’s leadership honest will be the decision forced upon them by Iran: Choose life or a fiery death, Jew. And judging Israel’s behavior from 1948 to the present, there’s every reason to believe she will make the wrong choice. But there is good news. Our wait will not be very long. We’re nearing the last straw. df]
www.gatestoneinstitute.org, 11/23/2012
by Harold Rhode
The loser has no say in the terms; only the victor has. The current agreement emboldens Israel's and America's enemies.
Overnight News............
CDR Salamander: Fullbore Friday
Ignorant people writing the laws...
Syria's Arab-led rebels take swathe of east but clash with Kurd militia
Ankara rejects Iraqi Premier warning
Tigris operation sets up seven checkpoints around Kirkuk city
What Gaza fighting taught Israel about possible war with Iran
Iraqi parliament speaker says al-Maliki's ready to normalize situations in disputed areas
As cyberwarfare heats up, allies turn to U.S. companies for expertise
Maliki re-iterates suggestion to joint administration for disputed areas
Northumberlandia, the Lady of the North: A supine land goddess makes her debut
DC on pace for fewer than 100 homicides in 2012
Student expelled for refusing to wear RFID tracking chip badge
The trap that Arik built
Russian Ex-Defense Ministry Official Charged With Fraud
Neo-Nazis attack Jewish soccer fans in Rome!...from Mike Haltman at TPC
Neo-Nazis groups in Europe are once again flourishing along with anti-Semitic attacks such as the one that took place in Rome last week against fans of the English football club Tottenham Hotspur, many of whom are Jewish.
Read the story at The Political Commentator here.
Friday, 23 November 2012
Obama, Clinton and Morsi: Oops I did it again!...from Mike Haltman at TPC
Mohamed Morsi has declared himself dictator of Egypt resulting in Arab Spring type riots in Tahrir Square and elsewhere around the country!
Read the article at The Political Commentator here.
China is building worlds tallest building in 90 days!...from Mike Haltman at TPC
China is planning to start construction on the worlds tallest building that will take only 90 days to complete from start to finish. How can they do that?
Read the article at The Political Commentator here.
A Passing Advantage – The Kurdish/Iraq Confrontation
Some of my early thoughts were published in rough form earlier. My estimate of Kurdish and Iraqi Forces is that neither side is really ready for a stand-up fight. But it may happen anyway for political reasons or as deployed forces maneuver for position. If it happens, don't be surprised if it doesn't work out as planned - for either side...
Of interest, the formation of the Tigris Operational Command and the claim of forming 2 Kurdish Operational Commands in response as justification for the confrontation is pure propaganda. Establishing corps-level commands has been ongoing since the Surge and both sides require these command elements whether they are fighting each other or not. They or something like them have been projected as planned for over 5 years. For a casus belli, this is really flimsy.
In 2003, the Kurds had a dominate position but, the US did not want a divided Iraq – policy was to rebuild Iraq to remain the natural geographical roadblock for Iran. This correlation of forces has not remained static. The Iraqi Army has re-grown to 14 divisions since then while the Peshmerga was already at peak strength in 2003 and has reduced to 10-11 division-equivalents since then for budget reasons. This didn’t matter as neither could push while foreign forces prevented operations. The withdraw of US forces last year was the first opportunity for Iraq and the Kurdish Regional Government to consider the military option to settle the disputed territories.
One problem with all analysis is that both sides do not have experience in conventional war. The majority of both forces are too young to have participated in anything other than internal security. Nor have they had sufficient training in conventional war. Conventional war is not the same as COIN and neither side knows how their troops will react to high intensity conflict.
While the straight numbers of Kurdish and Iraqi forces indicate an Iraqi advantage – the basic numbers are not the whole story. While Kurdish forces can be concentrated in a confrontation with Iraq – Iraqi forces are still heavily tied down performing internal security. This is a Kurdish passing advantage as the Iraqi Federal Police is slowly taking over the lead in internal security, freeing up the Iraqi Army for other employment and training.
Iraqi Army Pros and Cons
Neither side is ready. What we are seeing from the IA is preparatory moves vice short-term conflict moves. It will be 1-2 years before the IA is ready. While neither side is currently ready, IA has more resources in the long run than KRG. The IA has effective numeric parity with the trained reorganized RGBs with its available force at this time.
That is not the full story – the IA only started training on combined arms a year ago. They are still short Artillery and will have coordination and supply issues due to lack of experience. This confrontation is not the same as counter-insurgency operations.
The IA also needs to train on new equipment. This is especially true of the 12th Division in Kirkuk – it may be politically dependable but, it is too green and only recently equipped with some armor. Only the IA 9th Armor Division is really ready for this type of fight - the rest are still shaking-down on new equipment and only started training in conventional combined arms during the last year.
While the 12th Division in Kirkuk is politically dependable - Using 12th IA Division as point is a mistake. This is the same former Strategic Infrastructure Battalions that had to be re-blued/re-greened. It is the youngest, least capable/professional div in the IA - which makes giving them armor unwise. Given the limited time, the 12th has had armor and the limited hand-me-down armor only received in the last 2 months – they are likely to be combat ineffective until they have completed a real training shakedown – probably a year.
There is a trust issue with several IA divisions in a confrontation with the KRG. Kurds serving in the IA tend to be concentrated in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Divisions – all in disputed zones. The IA needs to shift forces in the north that they cannot trust verses the KRG to southern locations, while shifting forces the GoI can trust against the KRG to replace them. That takes time.
The IA has only limited number of forces available because most of the Army is still needed for internal security - this will change with time. As the Federal Police expands and takes over internal security in various locations, the IA will have more forces freed up for training and for deployment - this is the delay. The FP is not expanding fast enough, but this will eventually allow the IA to concentrate.
The IA also need more training time on the new equipment and needs more heavy weapons. Primarily needs Artillery verses the KRG, Artillery is the biggest shortage. Most of the other systems that the IA is short of are not essential in a fight against the KRG.
Additional time to fully set up sustainment is needed for the IA. Sustainment is an issue for both forces.
While the IA/IqAF has the air power advantage – it is insufficient to be more than a localized advantage. Given more training time and additional deliveries [especially munitions] – this will change. These may be the reasons PM Maliki is talking a deal where IA and KRG forces are partnered in the disputed zones. Prime Minister Maliki is talking joint patrols in the disputed zone - Smart move. This buys time to shift and upgrade forces. Looks like a compromise but, has the effect of pinning [corseting] most of the Regional Guards Brigades to an equal force of IA. In any KRG/GoI conflict, this would reduce the KRG flexibility - thus allowing the IA to move additional forces in and defeat the KRG in detail. Also, it would draw most of the RGBs into more favorable terrain for the IA. Again, this needs time to set up.
PM Maliki appears to want to move hard but, the IA is not ready. The limited numbers of new equipment procured haven't had enough personnel training time to be effective combined arms formations. The IA is not ready yet. 1-2 years minimum to get truly functional trained, equipped, and sustainable with the new equipment.
Then there is the International fall-out. Iraq can ill afford the likely results of even a victorious war with the KRG. The reaction would probably include an international arms embargo against Iraq - Not to mention UN peacekeepers deciding the actual border. Since Iraq has no air defense and limited heavy weapons, such a result would keep Iraq weak and its government very shaky.
Kurdish Regional Guards Pros and Cons
While the KRG is still not ready, they are in better shape vis-a-vie the IA at this time than they will be in the future. Unlike the IA, almost all of the Kurdish forces are available for a conflict. 16 of a planned 20 Regional Guards Brigades have been re-organized and trained/equipped for conventional conflict. The 2 KRG mechanized Brigades and 2 SOF Brigades are already functional although the armor is obsolete. The Zerevani has reorganized into 2 divisions and received enough Carabinarie training to be effective. The I DBE Region [Division] is also Kurdish manned and significant elements of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th IA Divisions will probably join the KRG in a fight.
The RGBs are actually matching conventional training timelines with the IA - retraining/reorganizing as many RGBs as the IA in the same timeframe. 16 of 20 RGBs have been retrained and reorganized. 4 more are starting training but, this program only started a little more than a year ago. Most of the current generation of Peshmerga [like the IA] has little or no conventional combat experience. Their problem is they have a lower final end-strength and less access to heavy weapons. The IA will surpass them in 1-2 years.
The KRG has the advantage in logistics - interior shorter lines. Without more effective air strength than they have available - the IA/IqAF has no realistic way of neutralizing this KRGs advantage. But, to maintain it, the KRG needs Turkish or Iranian backing for any resupply when they run out of ammo.
Another problem is that the Kurds have not historically demonstrated an ability to fight in the plains. All the disputed areas are in the plains. They are an infantry force that has not been able to defeat Iraqi armor advantage in the past. However, the current IA does not have so much armor this time and the KRG has been reported acquiring ATGWs that might be sufficient to neutralize that advantage for now.
Conclusion
From the GoI’s position this is IA/GoI political and battlefield prep for the future – it will be 1-2 years minimum before the IA is ready for a real fight. Any fight before the IA is ready, could be very iffy for the GoI. If the fight starts this year - the KRG has a good chance of winning against the IA.
From the KRG’s standpoint, this may be the last opportunity to secure the disputed zone and try for independence. The Kurds have the current force advantage but, that will not last. The KRG's current problem is Iran and Turkey – neither wants an independent Kurdistan. Without their concurrence the KRG would be fighting a loosing battle.
Both sides are operating from a questionable military position as they cannot be sure of their forces...
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