Monday 30 April 2012

Rhyming Gold & Silver................from Rico

Past market performance does not repeat exactly, but it often rhymes really well!

Looking at the COT (committment of traders) data reported by CFTC, and post-this morning's London "fix" here is an example of rhyming that you may not 'hear' from the noise of FTV (MSNBC, CNBC, et al).

Large Commercial traders have greatly cut back their 'short' positions in Gold and Silver.
- This is usually sign of a bottom, as they don't expect these commodities to fall much further from where they now are.

The Managed-fund 'long' positions on the COMEX last looked like this in Jan 2009 when Gold spot was $807/oz. By Nov 2009, Gold spot was above $1,200/oz...about a 50% rise.
- A similar rpice gain from today's Gold spot at $1,663/oz suggests $2,494/oz ahead. This is in line with projections by Deutschebank and many others forecasting $2,000-$2,500/oz Gold prices yet this year, and $5,000/oz in out years.

We will surely 'see'...but no one seriously expects anything but further fiat currency devaluation/debasement ahead, and that is what is being reflected in to Gold and Silver prices [read: it takes increasing amounts of paper to buy the same ounces of commodities; pick a currency, any currency].


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